Winter Fuels Outlook

October 17, 2023, 12:00 - 1:30 PM EST
Virtual Session

Please join us for our annual discussion on the outlook for winter fuels where we explore seasonal weather trends and impact on global demand for all winter fuels including natural gas, propane and crude oil and heating oil. This year, we face another volatile season ahead with elevated geopolitical risks, more frequent severe weather events related to climate change and changing regulatory landscape.

We are joined by Tim Hess who is product manager for the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook; Eleanor Budds who is a Director of Research and Analysis in Oil Markets and Downstream group at S&P Global Commodity Insights, and, Michael Schlacter, meteorologist who has consulted the industry regarding seasonal climate prediction. Ed Morse, Chair of the Energy Forum Advisory Board and Managing Director and Global Head of Commodity Research at Citigroup, will moderate the discussion.

This event will be a virtual session via Zoom from 12:00 PM until 1:30 PM EST. Additional details will be provided to registered attendees prior to the session.


Timothy Hess

Tim Hess is the product manager for the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), a position he’s held since November 2014. In this position, he coordinates EIA’s cross-office analysis and forecasts for oil, natural gas, and electricity markets.

He joined EIA in 2010 as a Petroleum Markets Analyst. In this role, he spent four years covering oil market trends and was a contributing author to EIA’s This Week in Petroleum publication. Prior to EIA, he worked on electricity forecasts at Baltimore Gas and Electric. He has a MA in Energy Policy from the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies and a BA in Economics from Michigan State University.

Eleanor Budds

Eleanor Budds is a Director of Research and Analysis in Oil Markets and Downstream group at S&P Global Commodity Insights. Eleanor has 14 years' experience in oil market analysis. She currently leads the European downstream research team and is a key member of the global short-term forecasting team. Amongst other topics, Eleanor has developed expertise in short-and long-term oil product price and refining margin forecasting, energy and environmental policy and regulation at EU and national country level, competitive dynamics in the marketing sector, crude oil markets, and oil company performance and strategies. She has contributed to a number of deep-dive consulting projects, notably assessing biofuels markets in Europe, carrying out a strategic analysis of a major European pipeline, and evaluating a retail marketing investment opportunity for a financial investor. Eleanor has a Bachelor's degree in English, and a MSc in Environmental Policy, in addition to a postgraduate qualification in conflict and international development.

Michael Schlacter

Michael Schlacter was educated in the fields of statistical climate prediction and meteorological physics at Cornell University with a degree in Atmospheric Sciences. Over the past 25 years he has consulted the Energy, Utility, Agriculture, Finance, Reinsurance, and Media industries regarding seasonal climate prediction and associated research. Furthermore, he has been routinely asked by the aforementioned industries to provide education and clarity regarding computer model biases, and prevailing misconceptions espoused by short-range forecasters.


Edward Morse

Edward L. Morse Chairs the Energy Forum Advisory Board and is Global Head of Commodities Research at Citi. He held similar positions at Lehman and Credit Suisse, taught at Princeton, Columbia and Johns Hopkins, worked at the Council on Foreign Relations, served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Energy Policy, and in management at Phillips Petroleum. A co-founder of PFC Energy, a former publisher at Energy Intelligence, he also worked at Hess Energy Trading. As a consultant helped design Yemen's oil pricing policy and assisted the UN Security Council on the design and negotiation of the Iraqi Oil-for-Food Program. He writes op-eds for the FT, NY Times, Wall Street Journal and Washington Post and often comments at Bloomberg TV and CNBC. He has been a Senior Fellow of both the USAEE and the IEEJ and was named by Petroleum Economist as among the ten most prominent individuals in energy finance.


12:00 PM - 1:30 PM: Presentation and Discussion


This session is complimentary for all registrants. Registration is required for event link details.